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Economist Update Panel

Strategic Track
Wednesday, April 5th
10:30 am - 11:30 am

Sponsored by:

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Join us for a discussion centered around the market outlook for the upcoming year. This panel, composed of industry experts, will discuss upcoming forecasts, challenges, and trending topics.

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Doug Duncan
Fannie Mae
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Parker Ross
Arch MI
Joe Bayer, Jr. - Moderator
First Integrity Mortgage

Economist Update Panel

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Doug Duncan

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

Fannie Mae

Douglas G. Duncan is senior vice president and chief economist at
Fannie Mae where he is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the
economy and the housing and mortgage markets. Duncan also oversees strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry.

Under his leadership, Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research
group (ESR) has won multiple awards. Most recently, he and his team
were awarded the 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast
Accuracy in the 2018-2021 period. In both 2015 and 2016, ESR was
awarded the NABE Outlook Award, presented annually for the most
accurate GDP and Treasury note yield forecasts – the first recipient in the award's history to capture the honor two years in a row. In addition,
Pulsenomics awarded ESR for best home price forecast.

Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek's 50 Most Powerful People in
Real Estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae's source for information and analyses
on demographics and the external business and economic environment, the implications of changes in economic activity on the company's strategy and execution, and for forecasting overall housing, economic, and mortgage market activity.

Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was senior vice president and chief
economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. His experience also
includes work on the Financial Institutions Project at the U.S.
Department of Agriculture and service as a LEGIS fellow and staff
member with the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs for
Congressman Bill McCollum in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Previously, Duncan was a board member of the National Association of
Business Economics and a board member and chairman of Strategies to Elevate People (STEP).

Duncan is a Hoyt Professional Fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute. He is a
member of Tyrus R. Timm Honor Registry from the Department of
Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University. He was chosen as the
North Dakota State University College of Agriculture Alumni of the Year
in 2018. He was also elected as a trustee of North Dakota State
University in 2022. Duncan serves on the board of directors for Serviam
Care Network.

Duncan received his Ph.D. in agricultural economics from Texas A&M
University and his B.S. and M.S. in agricultural economics from North
Dakota State University.

Economist Update Panel

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Parker Ross

Global Chief Economist

Arch MI

Parker joined Arch MI in 2021 after working at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. for six years, most recently as the head of the Corporate Economics team. Before JPMC, he monitored the residential and commercial real estate markets at AIG in the Office of the Chief Credit Officer and has nearly a decade of experience as a housing economist at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.


Parker completed his undergraduate and graduate studies at the University of Colorado, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and master’s degrees in economics and finance.

Economist Update Panel


Joe Bayer, Jr.

Chief YES Strategist

First Integrity Mortgage

Joe Bayer Jr. graduated from Truman State University with a BA in communications. Shortly after, he ventured into the working world, beginning his journey at Enterprise Rent-A-Car. Over the course of 10 years, Joe rose from an entry-level position to area rental manager for the mid-county region of St. Louis County.

After many years and wonderful experiences at Enterprise, Joe made the move to First Integrity Mortgage Services, where he began working for the family business as vice president of business development — an opportunity that allowed him to focus on moving the business forward through relationships, innovation, and strong partnerships.

Now, as chief yes strategist and CEO, Joe is responsible for the overall well-being and growth of the company. He states, “We are an independent mortgage banking firm that prides itself on doing exactly what our name implies — handling customers and providing quality products and services with the utmost integrity. It is precisely for this reason that we are the 3rd oldest mortgage company in the St. Louis area. As an STL native, I could not be more thrilled to lead a business whose goal is to build up communities in a city I love.”

Joe’s drive in the industry reaches far outside the walls of First Integrity. Joe is the former president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis and the current vice chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Missouri. Joe was also appointed by the governor of Missouri to sit on the Missouri Residential Mortgage Board. 

Joe is married to the lovely Theresa Bayer and has two incredible children. He enjoys cooking for his family and trying new foods together as well as traveling to new places (but preferably something that allows for an outdoor adventure).  His strong love for nature and family fuels his roles as both assistant scoutmaster in his son’s Scouts BSA troop (formerly Boy Scouts of America) and an active Paraquad board member (an organization that has dramatically helped his father and so many others on their road to independence).

Stephen Gassert (TN)
Sam B
Stephanie Massey (MS)
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